The ambitious Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) project, spanning 5,600 kilometers and set to connect 13 African countries, promises to transform energy access and cooperation across the continent. However, its path through politically unstable regions is fraught with risks. Armed groups ranging from jihadist organizations to local militias and separatist movements pose significant threats to the pipeline’s construction and long-term operation.
In this article, we explore the key armed groups operating along the pipeline’s route and their potential impact on this critical infrastructure.
Nigeria: The Heart of the Threat
Boko Haram and ISWAP
Nigeria’s northeastern region remains a hotbed of insurgency, primarily due to Boko Haram and its splinter group, the Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP). Both groups have a history of attacking infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and energy facilities, to disrupt government operations and gain leverage.
While the pipeline’s route may avoid the insurgents’ strongholds in the northeast, the risk of spillover into other areas cannot be ruled out. Both groups have demonstrated adaptability and the capacity to strike beyond their primary zones of influence.
Niger Delta Militants
In southern Nigeria, groups like the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) have long targeted oil and gas infrastructure. These militants, driven by grievances over environmental degradation and perceived exploitation of local resources, have sabotaged pipelines and kidnapped workers in the past. The NMGP could become a similar target if these issues remain unresolved.
Criminal Bandits
Northwestern and central Nigeria are plagued by armed bandits who engage in kidnapping, extortion, and attacks on infrastructure. These groups, often overlooked in the context of large-scale insurgencies, pose localized but significant risks to pipeline security.
Benin, Togo, and Ghana: Low Risk but Not Risk-Free
These West African nations are generally more stable than Nigeria, but cross-border smuggling networks and criminal gangs could exploit the construction phase of the pipeline. Ghana, in particular, has been a hub for illicit activities linked to gold mining, which could intersect with pipeline operations.
Côte d’Ivoire: A Country on the Brink
While Côte d’Ivoire has made strides in political stability, its northern regions face growing insecurity. Jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS have expanded their operations into West Africa’s coastal countries. Infrastructure projects like the NMGP, often seen as symbols of state power, are attractive targets for such groups.
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau: Narco-States and Political Instability
Guinea
The 2021 coup in Guinea highlighted the country’s ongoing political fragility. Infrastructure projects like the NMGP could become entangled in domestic political disputes or targeted during periods of unrest.
Guinea-Bissau
Known as a hub for international drug trafficking, Guinea-Bissau’s weak governance and corruption make it vulnerable to criminal exploitation. Armed groups involved in the drug trade could see the pipeline as an opportunity for extortion or sabotage.
Senegal and The Gambia: A Tale of Two Risks
Casamance Rebels (MFDC)
The Casamance region in southern Senegal has been a site of low-intensity conflict for decades. The Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC), a separatist group, has previously targeted infrastructure projects in the region. If the NMGP crosses Casamance, it could become a flashpoint.
Jihadist Expansion
Although Senegal has largely escaped the jihadist violence plaguing the Sahel, there is growing concern about extremist networks expanding into its northern regions.
Mauritania and Western Sahara: A Complex Endgame
Mauritania
Situated at the crossroads of the Sahel and North Africa, Mauritania faces threats from jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). These groups have attacked infrastructure and security forces in the past and could target the pipeline as it approaches Morocco.
Western Sahara and the Polisario Front
The Polisario Front, a separatist group fighting for Western Sahara’s independence from Morocco, presents a unique challenge. While their activities have primarily been political and diplomatic in recent years, any escalation in tensions with Morocco could lead to threats against infrastructure projects, including the NMGP.
Key Risks and Mitigation Strategies
1. Sabotage and Terrorism
Armed groups may target the pipeline to disrupt government operations, demand ransoms, or make political statements. Securing the pipeline will require robust military and private security cooperation across all 13 countries.
2. Cross-Border Smuggling
The pipeline route overlaps with trafficking networks for arms, drugs, and human smuggling. Governments must address these networks to prevent interference with pipeline operations.
3. Political Instability
Coups, elections, and internal conflicts could disrupt pipeline construction and operation. Effective international collaboration and political dialogue are essential to mitigating this risk.
A Balancing Act for Progress
The Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline holds immense potential for transforming Africa’s energy landscape, fostering regional cooperation, and boosting economic development.
However, it also faces significant geopolitical risks from armed groups and unstable regions. Successfully navigating these challenges will require unprecedented levels of coordination, investment in security, and political will.
The pipeline’s success or failure will not only determine the future of energy in Africa but also serve as a litmus test for the continent’s ability to overcome its most pressing security and governance challenges.
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